Date : 24/08/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2- International Relations -

Keywords: Non-Aligned Movement, Multipolar World, SCO, G-7, G-20

Context-

The impending BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in Johannesburg, scheduled from August 22 to August 24, will serve as a critical assessment of Indian diplomacy, shedding light on potential future geopolitics. India faces the task of navigating between a world order centered around China or the West or striving to find a balance between the two.

Challenges and Prospects of the BRICS Bloc

• The capacity of the BRICS to significantly reshape the global economy is questionable. It demonstrates limited interest in forging economic agreements among its members, and its historical ability to impact global geopolitics might be overstated. Furthermore, as a collective entity, it doesn't particularly attract investment. Currently, the BRICS seems to be more reactive and revisionist than proactive and clear-headed about its objectives.
• The gap between aspiration and reality within the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) grouping is particularly wide. Originally intended as a challenge to the global order, aiming to reshape development and power dynamics, the BRICS lacks a cohesive foundation. Its initial purpose was to counterbalance the West, but it lacked a shared enemy or common values. While it positioned itself as a platform for development alternatives, it failed to propose concrete alternatives to the existing global system. The initial enthusiasm around its formation in 2009, during the global economic crisis, provided a temporary socialization mechanism independent of the West, but the absence of a clear purpose now troubles the BRICS.
• The idea of rebalancing against the Western-dominated developmental order is significant but complicated by recent developments. The call for rebalancing now includes China, as strategic and economic rebalancing clash, drawing countries closer to the Western orbit. China's dominance raises concerns not only about the West but also about strategic alignment with China itself.
• The BRICS' developmental vision remains underdeveloped. While it initially aimed to counter the West's asymmetric power in development, this rationale gains urgency due to the West's self-centered behavior during events like the COVID crisis and Russia's Ukraine invasion. However, the BRICS countries' lack of alignment undermines their case for expansion.
• Climate change is a paramount global challenge. Efforts for climate financing lack unity among developing countries. Interestingly, the outcome now hinges on innovative measures in the US and China, with institutional mechanisms falling short. This dynamic complicates the effort to rebalance power toward developing nations.
• The BRICS face limitations. Currency matters lack consensus, and the BRICS' potential role in promoting indebted development, multilateral cooperation, and climate action is constrained by China's stance and the breakdown of the open trading system. Research and innovation cooperation falters among BRICS nations, with the exception of China, and alternative institutions the BRICS sought to create have not materialized effectively.
• The BRICS, originally envisioned as a force for rebalancing, now serves more for socialization and diplomatic engagement. Amid escalating great power competition, global stability is at risk. The BRICS lacks the impact of the Non-Aligned Movement and its potential as a solution is overshadowed by its role as a symptom of global dysfunction

Potential Impact on World Politics

• However, the BRICS holds the potential to evolve into a force capable of influencing the trajectory of world politics. Recent geopolitical shifts and challenges faced by the United Nations system have provided renewed significance to the BRICS. It possesses a broader global representation compared to the UN Security Council and the G-7, although it lags behind the G-20, which is Western-dominated. Consequently, the choices made by the BRICS during the summit and beyond could have far-reaching implications for the international order.

BRICS as an Alternative Path to Global Governance

• Filling the Vacuum of Western-Led Global Governance: Given the undemocratic nature of the current global governance structure, there's a void that forums like the BRICS could potentially fill, even though their adequacy might be in question. Around 40 countries have shown interest in joining an expanded BRICS, reflecting a deep-seated dissatisfaction among global South countries about their global standing.
• Addressing Underrepresentation of Middle and Regional Powers: Amid the uncertainties in the global geopolitical landscape, countries with moderate power and regional influence are considering their options. These nations could leverage forums like the BRICS to navigate global geopolitical challenges and exert influence. The BRICS has been revitalized by the Ukraine conflict and China's growing prominence.
• Facilitating Genuine Conversations on Global Issues: Many countries, especially those in the global South, often find themselves marginalized in discussions about critical global issues like climate change and cybersecurity. Platforms like the BRICS offer the flexibility necessary to address these issues effectively.

India's Complex Dilemma

• Unclear Geopolitical Position: For India, the current global geopolitical situation presents intricate choices. It's unclear where India fits in the global order. Western perspectives often associate India's membership in BRICS and the SCO with its stance on the Ukraine conflict and its standoff with Russia. Balancing involvement in the Quad, G-20, G-7, BRICS, SCO, and the global South simultaneously poses a challenge.
• Balancing Geopolitical Faultlines Amid China's Rise: India's geopolitical position is complex due to its historical, developmental, and geographical ties to BRICS, SCO, and the global South. However, it also aligns structurally and aspirationally with the G-20, G-7, and the Quad. Straddling this emerging geopolitical faultline requires New Delhi to be both a bridge and a balanced player to avoid becoming a victim of growing geopolitical contestations.

Multipolarity and the Challenge of Rising Blocs

• Rise of Competitive Blocs: A significant concern in the evolving global geopolitics is the emergence of competing blocs. As China and Russia align their interests, the organizations they are part of could clash with the status quo led by the US and its allies. India has historically advocated for multipolarity based on equity, inclusion, and representation.
• Managing the China Factor: Amid this, India must continuously assess whether its actions in pursuit of a multipolar world inadvertently contribute to China's global ascendancy. While a multipolar world requires alternative forums, these very platforms could bolster China's influence, making it challenging for India to match. Strengthening non-Western institutions could paradoxically aid China's revisionist agenda.

The Choice Ahead for India

• India's overarching goal should be the promotion of a more inclusive and representative global governance system. It needs to manage China's influence in non-Western forums while engaging with Eurocentric platforms like the UNSC and G-7. Striking this balance ensures that India's national interests are safeguarded while contributing to a more democratic international order.

Conclusion

In the realm of global governance, a collection of imperfect institutions that reflect the current realities holds more promise than a single, imperfect institution that doesn't align with today's world. Imperfections within international politics are preferable to hegemonic dominance. India's role should involve asserting its position in global forums without aligning itself with a specific bloc.