Date : 18/12/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2 – International Relations – India and Its neighbourhood

Keywords: SAC, NLD, PDF, Bamar Ethnicity

Context-

Myanmar's military, known as the Tatmadaw, has faced a significant challenge after orchestrating a coup in February 2021, forming the State Administration Council (SAC). This move triggered a strong backlash—the toughest in six decades. The response to the coup has given rise to opposition forces, including the People's Defense Forces (PDF) and ethnic armed groups, leading to a potential civil war.

The Emergence of Opposition Forces:

Following the coup, the National League for Democracy (NLD) and pro-democracy activists created the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile. Simultaneously, the People's Defense Forces (PDF) were formed, engaging the military in rural areas using guerrilla tactics. Ethnic armed groups joined forces with the PDF and the NUG, escalating conflicts into a full-fledged civil war.

The National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) became a platform for pro-democratic forces. Ethnic armed groups, such as the Karen National Union and Kachin Independence Organization, supported the NUG but rejected the idea of a single 'Federal Army' under unified NUG command.

Coordinated Attacks and Conflict Escalation:

The Three Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army (AA), coordinated attacks in 'Operation 1027' on October 27, 2023. These attacks in northern Shan State dealt significant setbacks to the military. The Tatmadaw found itself stretched thin, even in its strongholds, raising questions about an existential threat to its dominance.

Military Strength and International Support:

Despite challenges, seasoned observers, including Bertil Lintner, emphasize the Tatmadaw's resilience, labeling it the "most effective and best-armed fighting force" in Myanmar. A UN report from May 2023 revealed the military's use of arms worth $1 billion, largely sourced from Russia, China, and Singapore, with smaller contributions from India. The Tatmadaw faced accusations of war crimes, using advanced weaponry against its own people, while the PDF relied on locally sourced arms.

Historical Context of the Tatmadaw:

The roots of the Tatmadaw trace back to the Burma Independence Army (BIA), formed in 1941 with Japanese assistance. Led by Aung San, father of Aung San Suu Kyi, the BIA initially fought alongside the Japanese against the British in World War II. Post-war, it transformed into the Burma Defence Army, aligning with the Allies against Japanese occupation. General Ne Win's coup in 1962 established a unitary state under military rule, lasting for 26 years and characterized by isolationist policies and dictatorial fiat.

The 1988 civilian uprising against military rule was violently suppressed, leading to the declaration of martial law. The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) took control in 1997, ruling until 2011 when power transitioned to a hybrid civilian-military regime led by Thein Sein. Despite the NLD's 2015 victory, attempts to restrict the military's powers were thwarted by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who later chaired the SAC, capturing absolute power in 2021.

The Complex Path to Democracy:

While international sanctions, diaspora backlash, and support for the NUG challenge the junta, the military's strategic use of ethnic divisions and resourcefulness maintain its control. Observers like Lintner suggest a prolonged war of attrition, unless internal divisions within the Tatmadaw can be exploited for a decisive pro-democracy and pro-federal victory. The challenges of building a post-junta, federal, and democratic Myanmar are substantial.

Impact on India

Incidents of cross-border movements of people and transport of illegal goods were also reported. It has had an adverse impact on India’s Act East policy, which had since 2014 become more dynamic and result-oriented. It has negatively impacted India’s initiatives in terms of land outreach towards the vibrant economies of South East Asia and It has also retarded development in the Northeast. This is creating impediments to the Centre’s overtures for future peace initiatives. Also, reports of meddling by Chinese intelligence in supporting these militant groups are of concern and demand proactive action. India’s strategy concerning the military coup in Myanmar comes at the expense of security concerns for the indigenous stakeholders in the NER.

Options available for India

Continued Engagement with Myanmar Factions

• There is a need for continued engagement, both formal and informal, with the warring factions in Myanmar.

Enhancing Bilateral Relations with Bangladesh

• Favourable bilateral relations with Bangladesh offer an opportunity for opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity for promoting trade and commerce with Southeast Asia.

Infrastructure Development for Land Routes to Bangladesh Seaports

• There is a need to upgrade the multitude of land routes to the seaports in Bangladesh, from Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura.
• Appropriate infrastructure such as container depots, cold storage facilities, and seamless highways will have to be developed on a war footing.
• Indian manufactured goods will have to be transported to the rail/roadheads in the Northeast like Guwahati for ready access to the seaports of Bangladesh.

Establishment of an Empowered Department

• There is a need to raise an empowered department for monitoring and facilitating projects that support India’s Act East policy, transcending all critical Ministries like Home, External Affairs, Industry, Surface-River Transport, etc.

Conclusion

Myanmar faces a critical moment as the Tatmadaw grapples with unprecedented challenges to its long-standing dominance. The emergence of opposition forces, ethnic armed groups, and coordinated attacks has strained the military's resources. While some see an existential threat, others, like Lintner, stress the Tatmadaw's enduring strength. The international community's role, the military's actions against its own people, and the complexities of achieving democratic transition highlight Myanmar's intricate political landscape. Navigating toward a post-junta, federal, and democratic Myanmar is uncertain and challenging, requiring careful steps and international cooperation.

Source- The Hindu