Date : 22/12/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 3 - National Security (Also relevant for GS paper 3- Economy - Budgeting)

Keywords: The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program, Russia-Ukraine war, Tejas Mk1A fighters, Electoral Imperatives, Electoral Imperatives

Context-

• India's defense landscape faces multifaceted challenges, from the persistent threat on its northern borders to the evolving dynamics in the maritime domain.
• As the country approaches the upcoming Budget for 2024-25, concerns arise regarding the allocation for defense amidst the electoral fervor and the need for strategic preparedness. This analysis looks into the critical aspects of India's defense budgeting, the imperative for deterrence, and the intersection with electoral imperatives.

Affordable Defense vs. Affordable Effectiveness:

The Challenge of Depleting Squadron Strength:

The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program, initiated in 2007, gained notoriety as the 'mother of all procurements' with an estimated cost of $10 billion. However, the subsequent purchase of only 36 Rafale jets in 2017 left the Indian Air Force (IAF) grappling with a squadron strength of a mere 32, well below the desired 42 squadrons. The impending Budget needs to address this critical deficit and strategically evaluate the balance between affordable defense and the imperative for defense potency.

Budget Allocation:

The central question emerges: Should budgetary constraints dictate defense capabilities, or should the nation's security imperatives drive the defense budget allocations? The recent decision by the IAF to acquire 97 Tejas Mk1A fighters, deviating from the initial plan of 114 multi-role fighter aircraft, highlights the need for a judicious assessment of defense planning and resource allocation.

Addressing Live Threats on Multiple Fronts:

The live threat on India's northern borders and the unpredictability of the western neighbor necessitate a comprehensive defense strategy. Balancing affordability with effectiveness becomes crucial, considering the geopolitical uncertainties. The need for a judicious assessment of how India plans to prosecute the next war becomes imperative in the current electoral landscape.

Modernization Imperatives Across Services:

Beyond the IAF, both the Indian Army and Navy face challenges, with reported deficiencies in their capabilities. Amidst discussions about the imperative need for strengthening sea power to deter China in the Malacca Strait and the broader Indian Ocean, the call for modernizing the Army comes into focus. Given its size, the Army's modernization entails a substantial budget requirement. Preceding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the military's planning centered around a short and intense conflict, with logistics designed for a 10-day scenario, extending to a 40-day buildup. However, the recent shift in focus towards an extended war scenario, akin to the situation in Ukraine, prompts a reconsideration of strategic planning.

The Role of Indigenous Development and R&D:

While the government promotes the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative and emphasizes indigenization through schemes like Innovations For Defence Excellence (iDEX), underscores the long gestation period for developing a local defense industry. The stagnation in India's defense budget, both in real terms and as a percentage of central government expenditure, raises concerns about the nation's preparedness in the face of evolving security challenges.

Research and Development Landscape:

A critical aspect of defense preparedness is research and development (R&D). The Global Innovation Index 2022 reveals India's R&D expenditure at a mere 0.7% of its GDP, ranking 53rd globally. In contrast, China's substantial investment in R&D, amounting to $421 billion in 2022, underscores the need for India to prioritize and substantially increase its R&D allocation.

Challenges in Defense Expenditure:

Despite the Ministry of Defence's request for ₹1,76,346 crore in 2023-24 for capital acquisitions, only ₹1,62,600 crore was allotted, creating a deficit of ₹13,746 crore. It emphasizes the need for sustained momentum in defense budgeting, ensuring that policies remain consistent and election-proof in India's vibrant democracy.

Striking a Balance Amidst Electoral Imperatives:

The restructuring of the Ordnance Factory Board and the establishment of negative import lists signal confidence-building measures for the private sector, assuring them of contracts. While these initiatives are positive and the uptick in defense exports is encouraging, it is crucial to acknowledge that such endeavors have a protracted gestation period. Sustaining momentum requires a consistent policy framework and robust defense budgeting, ensuring immunity from electoral fluctuations in our dynamic democracy. Bipartisan statesmanship becomes pivotal in maintaining this trajectory.
While cost considerations are paramount, allocating limited resources to counter a formidable adversary is essential. However, the scenario becomes more complex when faced with two militarily adept adversaries, neither of which can be considered pygmies.
As China's assertiveness prompts Japan to double its defense budget, the United States reinforces Taiwan's military capabilities, and regional alliances undergo a transformation, it becomes imperative to recognize the global geopolitical shifts. Neglecting due attention to India's defense budget in light of national security imperatives, especially in the face of electoral pressures, would be both naive and unprofessional. It urges bipartisan statesmanship to ensure a sustained and comprehensive approach to defense budgeting, safeguarding the nation's security interests.

Conclusion:

As India navigates through the challenges of defense budgeting, electoral imperatives, and evolving security scenarios, a delicate balance between affordability and effectiveness must be struck. The imperative for deterrence requires a strategic and long-term vision, ensuring that the nation is adequately prepared to face threats on multiple fronts. The upcoming Budget for 2024-25 will be a litmus test of India's commitment to national security in the face of electoral dynamics.

Source- The Hindu