Date : 2/12/2023

Relevance: GS Paper 2- International Relations - Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean Region

Keywords: Maldives' new foreign policy, India-China geopolitical rivalry, "India Out" campaign, NATO

Context-

• The Maldives, a nation historically seen through the prism of the India-China geopolitical rivalry, has recently taken a surprising turn in its foreign policy by choosing Turkey as its initial foreign destination under the leadership of President Mohamed Muizzu.
• This move challenges the traditional narrative that framed Maldivian international relations solely within the context of the rivalry between India and China.
• Here we will look into the significance of the Maldives' new foreign policy, its implications for the region, the evolving dynamics of global power, and the strategic maneuvers of middle powers like Turkey .

Challenges to the Traditional Narrative:

• The decision to prioritize Turkey indicates the Maldives' willingness to diversify diplomatic and strategic ties beyond the established partnerships with India and China. This move challenges the traditional narrative and reflects a changing approach among smaller states in the Subcontinent, no longer content to be perceived as mere pawns in great power rivalries.
• Smaller states in the Subcontinent are increasingly becoming attractive geopolitical targets, not only for major powers like the US, China, and Russia but also for rising middle powers such as Turkey. This shift underscores the evolving nature of global power dynamics, where smaller nations actively engage in strategic maneuvers to enhance their influence on the international stage.
• Highlighting the trend of external powers becoming pawns in the internal politics of small states, as demonstrated by Muizzu's "India Out" campaign.

Changing Dynamics of Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean Region:

The strategic value of smaller countries, such as the Maldives, is becoming increasingly apparent. Local elites within smaller states leverage their strategic importance, actively playing external powers against each other for their own benefit. The Maldives' foreign policy shift exemplifies this recognition of political agency among small states, challenging the traditional narrative of their role in great power politics.

Growing Interests of Rising Middle Powers:

• The past decade has seen rising middle powers, including Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, actively supporting political factions in various states across Africa, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean.
• Turkey's assertiveness in India's extended neighborhood, coupled with its geopolitical ambitions, positions it as a key player in the changing dynamics of the region.
• Muizzu's visit to Turkey signifies Turkey's growing involvement in the region. Additionally, the visit underscores the rising geopolitical friction between Delhi and Ankara, highlighting Turkey's expanding role beyond its traditional spheres of influence.

Turkey's Evolving Role in Global Geopolitics, Particularly in Relation to India:

• Turkey's historical context with India reveals a shift in goodwill from the early 20th century towards the Indian national movement to a predominantly pro-Pakistan stance post-Partition in 1947.
• Under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has intensified diplomatic and political support for Islamabad, particularly on the Kashmir issue.

Underestimated Power in Indian Strategic Discourse:

• Despite its growing assertiveness in India's extended neighborhood, Turkey remains an underestimated power in Indian strategic discourse.
• Erdogan's leverage of Turkey's multiple identities, including its role as a founding member of NATO and its critical location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, underscores its significance in shaping global geopolitics.

Turkey's Inroads into Indian Ocean Islands and Implications for India:

Muizzu's visit to Turkey is considered a strategic success for Turkey's growing influence in the Indian Ocean. Turkey's foreign minister's earlier visit to Sri Lanka and the Maldives laid the groundwork for deeper engagement, and now Turkey is capitalizing on Muizzu's plan to shift the Maldives away from India. This is evident in Erdogan's warm reception in Ankara and the ambitious goal of drawing the Maldives into Turkey's Islamic orbit. So implications for India are followings as-

• Near-Term Setbacks: Acknowledging the inevitable near-term setbacks for India in the Maldives and the need for patience in navigating the evolving geopolitical landscape.
• Military Cooperation: Discussing the bilateral trade agreement and the potential for military assistance from Turkey to the Maldives, impacting India's defense cooperation with the island nation.
• Geographic Proximity: Emphasizing India's enduring geographic proximity to the Maldives as a strategic advantage, despite shifts in the island nation's foreign policy.
• Domestic Political Engagement: Advocating for increased engagement with the domestic politics of the Maldives, given the potential impact of small changes in the balance of power on external orientation.
• Regional Cooperation: Proposing collaboration with like-minded partners in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to prevent destabilization of the Maldives by Turkey.
• Active Posture: Arguing for a proactive Indian posture in Ankara's neighborhood to counter Turkey's growing influence and improve India's position in the geopolitical competition

The Way Forward for India:

To enhance its position in the geopolitical clash with Turkey, India must adopt a more aggressive stance in Ankara's neighborhood. This involves increasing India's presence beyond South Asia, recognizing Turkey's growth as a regional power. As Turkey expands its influence, India must strategically navigate the changing dynamics of the Indian Ocean region.

Conclusion

In the complex geopolitical landscape of the Indian Ocean region, the Maldives' shift towards Turkey introduces new dimensions to global power dynamics. As smaller states actively assert their political agency, rising middle powers like Turkey play a crucial role in shaping the region's future. India, recognizing the challenges and opportunities presented by these shifts, must adopt a patient and engaged approach, collaborating with like-minded partners to prevent potential destabilization and strategically positioning itself in the evolving dynamics of the Indian Ocean.

Source- Indian Express