Date : 12/06/2023

Relevance : GS 3 : Climate Change

Key Words: World Meteorological Organization, Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027, 2 degree Celsius target, El Niño, Polar Amplification, Cryosphere

Context-

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released two crucial reports, titled "Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027" and "State of Global Climate 2022," shedding light on the future of climate change. These reports paint a stark picture of the challenges we face and emphasize the urgent need for international action to combat the escalating climate crisis.
• Decadal predictions by the WMO indicate that the average global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 is expected to rise by 1.1-1.8 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Alarming projections reveal that by 2027, the average global temperature will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, beyond which the consequences may be irreversible and catastrophic.

Why is the 1.5 degree Celsius target critical?

• The critical nature of the 1.5 degree Celsius target is underscored by the findings of the IPCC's special report in 2018. It revealed the stark contrast between the impact of 1.5-degree and 2-degree warming scenarios. Even a 2-degree increase would result in more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, heavy precipitation, a rise in sea levels by an additional 10 centimeters, irreversible damage to ecosystems, and other devastating effects.

• The 1.5 degree Celsius target refers to the global climate goal aimed at limiting the increase in average global temperature to this level by the year 2100. For many years, the acceptable target had been set at 2 degrees Celsius. However, small island nations, whose very existence is threatened by rising sea levels, pushed for a more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
• In 2015, during the Paris Agreement negotiations, countries recognized the urgency of the situation and pledged to limit the temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while striving to achieve a 1.5-degree increase. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) endorsed this target in 2018, cementing it as a global imperative in all climate dialogues.
• Regional differences and vulnerabilities further amplify the urgency for climate action. Notably, the Arctic experiences disproportionately higher warming compared to the global average, leading to what is known as "polar amplification." These regional disparities highlight the need to limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to mitigate the most severe consequences.

Current Progress and Challenges

• Despite the global recognition of the need to address climate change, progress toward achieving the targets has been inadequate. Developed countries, historically responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, are expected to take the lead in implementing climate action. However, countries like Australia, the United States, Japan, Russia, and Canada have made limited progress in meeting their commitments.

• Furthermore, even countries with significant emissions, such as China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, rank poorly in terms of climate performance. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the situation, diverting attention and resources away from sustainable recovery efforts. Many nations failed to consider sustainability in their post-pandemic recovery plans, hampering progress toward climate goals.
• The recent energy crisis resulting from the Ukraine conflict has further complicated the situation, posing challenges to achieving climate targets. Addressing climate change requires a comprehensive and coordinated effort, combining national commitments, international cooperation, and sustainable recovery strategies.

Linking Extreme Weather Events to Global Temperature Rise

• Recent predictions indicate an increase in precipitation anomalies and marine heat waves, along with a heightened probability of experiencing temperatures higher than those observed in 2016 during the El Niño cycle. The impacts of climate change are evident in the shrinking cryosphere, including mass loss of glaciers in High-mountain Asia, Western North America, and South America. The accelerated melting of the Greenlandic ice sheet is also contributing to rising sea levels.
• Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, and storms, have grave consequences for human populations and ecosystems. Latest example is the heatwaves in Pakistan and India in 2022.
• Crop yields have been negatively affected, leading to food insecurity and displacement, as seen in countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan.
• Moreover, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are experiencing disruptions, with migratory species declining and coral reefs facing increased vulnerability to bleaching.

India's Vulnerability and Efforts

• India, in particular, has been significantly impacted by climate change. In February 2023, the country experienced its hottest month since record-keeping began in 1901. Last year, extreme weather events affected India for nearly 80% of the days, leading to devastating wildfires in Uttarakhand and acute food shortages.
• Despite being an emerging economy with development needs, India has made efforts to balance its development goals with climate action. The country ranks eighth on the Climate Change Performance Index 2023, performing well in terms of its domestic initiatives, such as the Green Hydrogen Mission and the introduction of green bonds. India's active participation in international collaborations like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure also demonstrates its commitment to global climate efforts.

Conclusion: Time for Urgent Action

• The recent reports by the World Meteorological Organization provide a stark reminder of the urgent need for action to address the climate crisis. The projections indicate that we are approaching a critical point, with the average global temperature set to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius target by 2027. Failing to limit global warming to this threshold would result in irreversible and devastating consequences for both human populations and the environment.
• The current trajectory demands that countries fulfill their commitments under the Paris Agreement and accelerate their efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy. Bold and comprehensive measures are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance resilience, and promote sustainable development. The global community must work together to ensure a sustainable and secure future for generations to come.

Source: The Hindu